I'm both cynical and optimistic about the transformative impact of AI.
I think we're seeing the limitations of current incarnations of AI in business use cases. I suspect this will change as:
- AI evolves; and
- We figure out use cases, guardrails, and the right mixes of human and machine thinking.
Data seems to support this (MIT's 95% failure study, METR's developer productivity study, EY's 99% loss study). Right now, we're seeing the practical limitations of our current attempts to leverage it.
However I do think we're going to see real transformation, and I suspect that "boom" moment of inflection will be when technologies converge. The spark when spatial computing and AI both hit the right maturity will be game changing, and it will impact industries far different from the ones we currently think about.
Imagine an apprentice in a technically complicated field able to ask a model (IMO probably a smaller one) a question, and harness lifetimes of knowledge in real time, or smart glasses that can identify a problem and interrogate a model for recommendations.
Or a generalist medical practitioner in the ER seeing a condition for the first time, with glasses that can see symptoms, listen to the discussion, and ask a model for possible diagnoses, and interventions. The quality and speed of care could improve dramatically.
We'll lower the bar for entry to a variety of fields, as well as increase the effectiveness and efficiency.
We're going to have to rethink entire professions. Expectations can be raised, and entry restrictions simultaneously reduced.
What does that mean for incomes, and career development? Fascinating areas yet to be explored, and profoundly more transformative than whether we can get away with a few less people in a contact center.
Originally published on LinkedIn.